HANDICAPPING THE FAVORITES
ISD’s
Armistice Day Predictions
In the name of good fun and for
the sake of Vegas odds-makers who are closely following this event, ISD offers this special handicapping preview of the upcoming
Armistice Day Fits Tournament. A few of the categories are quasi-serious but most of them are monuments to frivolity... then
again, sometimes having the Clock of Death, Ken’s Tinkerbell or a new set of Death Dice on your side can tip the scales
of an important game your way. So if you promise not to take this too seriously and forgive the author for giving himself
a “zero” in every category, by all means read on…
We will primarily score the players
who have already committed to competing for the tourney title… and it is the tourney title we are debating (not the
squadron title) so we'll score even those players who may show up although they didn’t play with us this year. If you're
coming but not included here, let us know so you can be included in this mess! The scoring categories break down as follows,
with a high score of twenty and a low score of one to form a cumulative total:
Game Experience
– How long you’ve been playing this game and how well you can stack the odds in your favor.
Intangibles –
Some players can’t get a lucky roll when they need it, some have all the luck in the world. Some know when to call “sixty
seconds” and completely foul up your move. This category is for all those little things that don’t fit anywhere
else.
Championship Mettle
– How well you fare when the chips are down in high-pressure, championship-level games.
Dues Paid –
Every now and then a player comes of age… its just his day and there’s nothing you or any power on earth can do
to stop it. The planets align and his dice are hot. This category considers the notion that every dog has his day, and some
players are overdue for a break.
Props –
The lack of a cheap, hoaky, stupid prop is a severe handicap in Dawn Patrol. A prop can be anything from a quick verbal jab
at an antagonist to Brian Halberstadt’s infamous Skull in which he would shake his dice around before rolling pilot
hits (it never worked). This category analyzes the presence, strength and effectiveness of player props.
So… and this the last chance
for anyone who takes this seriously to stop reading... let the scoring begin!
Ken Mrozak handicap: 69
Game Experience: 20
Ken started playing this game in the
'70's. 'Nuff said.
Intangibles: 16
Is there a player in Dawn Patrol who gets
more clutch rolls than Ken? Really? Well, tell me who it is!
Championship Mettle: 12
Ken's record in high caliber games is very
good... but when he flops, he flops big. Note a couple of busts at Gen Con this year.
Dues Paid: 1
He has absolutely nothing coming in this
category. Ken has won more than his share of DP events and is the returning squadron champion. Don't expect any favors from
fate and don't go back to the well too often.
Props: 20
Well, actually this is 19+1. Ken's bell
is a great prop and he uses it regularly... that's good for nineteen points. He gets one extra because everyone hates it.
Stephen Dale Skinner handicap: 67
Game Experience: 6
Stephen Dale has been around the game since he was 8 years old, but not all of his
experience can be considered quality table time.
Intangibles: 10
We'd like to give him an "18," but we're not sure which Stephen Dale will show up
in November... the one who got himself annihiliated in the early rounds of the '04 tourney, or the one who played a spectacular
game and routed 33 other players in this year's World's Largest. Anyone got a coin to flip?
Championship Mettle: 16
Stephen Dale appears to be one of the society's surging players. He's coming off several
pillar performances this summer in big games, he was red-hot at Gen Con and we should not forget that he's already captured
an RBF title.
Dues Paid: 20
He's approaching his seventh Armistice Day Tournament and hasn't missed one since
2000. He is one of the most dedicated and regular Indy players. His ship is due to come in any minute.
Props: 15
Stephen Dale originated the "V for Vendetta" dice, debuting them successfully at Gen
Con. When he rolls you certainly don't want to see the V.
Rick Lacy handicap: 63
Game Experience: 18
Rick plays regularly and stays sharp. That's
worth a lot and puts him ahead of many old-time players who only show up once or twice a year.
Intangibles: 10
Rick's luck in tourney games has been less
than impressive. Not a complete no-show, but sometimes he can't get The Roll when he needs it.
Championship Mettle: 14
Although he has no Victory Medals to show
for it, Rick is never out of a game mentally and he never loses concentration. As a result he can never be taken for granted.
ISD gives him a "14" in this category despite his unspectacular tourney history. He remains a dangerous and clever opponent
and a solid bet.
Dues Paid: 20
For six years he's paid his dues, rarely
missing a squadron game day and almost never missing a tournament. He's due alright, and winning is only a matter of when,
not "if." Will this be his year?
Props:1
This could hurt him. He needs to steal Bart's
Clock of Death and bring it to the tourney with him. No bell, no clock, no gun... how does he expect to win anything?
Jason Meador handicap: 62
Game Experience: 6
Jason played heavily from 1990-1995, but can an old hand make a big comeback after an eleven-year
layoff after only playing a few times this year? We're not sure.
Intangibles: 16
A solid score for anyone who remembers terms like "Pa-ching" and "above sea level." Jason has
presence. When he sits down at the table it just feels like he belongs here. We have no idea why, but then, that's why this
column is called "intangibles."
Championship Mettle: 8
Yes, he has a title to his name. But it came some thirteen years ago and was preceded by
a string of three straight Armistice disasters. There's no doubt that he once knew how to dig for a win under pressure, but
now? Well... we'll find out on November 11th.
Dues Paid: 20
Anyone who steps away from the game and returns after twelve years and still has his original
pilot roster, his Victory Medal and all his game equipment must have something good going. His body may have
left the game but his spirit clearly didn't. We think Destiny may like that.
Props: 12
He has no substantive props, but an exception must be made because Jason is the World Champion
Taunter. Quick with a verbal assault and just spicy enough to irritate an unsuspecting opponent, Jason gets a bye for having
a Prop without a Prop.
Dory Oda handicap: 62
Game Experience: 10
Dory's been playing this game since 1989
but she doesn't play enough to stay sharp anymore. Does she still have the killer instinct that won her three straight titles?
Intangibles: 14
She can certainly pull out all the stops
at tourney time... she won't hesitate to call sixty seconds, is critical of every opponent's move and does the little things
that can win games.
Championship Mettle: 20
No one else in the 18-year history of this
event has won back to back titles... she's won three back to back titles. When the dice hit the fan at tourney time,
some people show up with claws bared and teeth clenched. Dory has always been one of them. If a higher score was possible
in this category she would get it.
Dues Paid: 8
November has been way good to Dory and she
really can't expect much from Lady Luck... then again, her last title was a decade ago. Hmm.
Props: 10
She gets extra points for timely verbal
jabs and deliberate taunting with her three (!) Victory Medals, but Dory is sadly lacking in useless, annoying physical props.
Kevin Richeson handicap: 60
Game Experience: 12
Although he's been a "hot or cold" participant in the past, Kevin has shown up at
several games this summer and seems sharp and ready.
Intangibles: 6
This is a wild card... Kevin will either smack you down like a red-headed stepchild
or go home dead last. There never seems to be any in-between. Don't look for him to finish second. On Armistice Day there's
no award for second place, and Kevin's not that kinda guy anyway.
Championship Mettle: 16
Kevin is a gambler. The risks he takes may wreak havoc
on his roster, but at tourney time they may be just what the Dr.1 ordered.
Dues Paid: 8
This will be his ninth appearance in a major Indy tourney with two titles to show
for it. That's not a bad record, but we think his dice may still have a few good rolls left in them when we least expect it.
Props: 18
Well, actually 9+9. Kevin's props leave much to be desired, but his theft of
Ken's Tinkerbell at the moment of truth to kill Ken's own pilot remains a classic move that no one else has ever pulled off.
Ben Hodgson handicap: 59
Game Experience: 16
Ben's depth of experience in Dawn Patrol really isn't that extensive, so its amazing that he
performs so well and so consistently in big games. Ordinarily he would score lower on the experience scale but if he ever
plays at anything less than Masters level, we've never seen it.
Intangibles: 8
We may be way off on this one, but Ben doesn't seem to have "The Roll" every time he needs it.
His success comes through careful analysis of the game and deliberate planning and we don't consider that an intangible.
Championship Mettle: 19
He was smokin' hot last November, he's a powerhouse at Gen Con and he won the Medal of Honor
in a society tournament. If that's not championship mettle, tell me what is?
Dues Paid:
7
Like Ken Mrozak, Ben has won his share of games and honors. Sooner or later everyone's dice go
cold... even Ben's. He can't stay red hot forever.
Props: 9
What's better for a prop than a native Brit with an British accent flying a British plane? How
is this not cool? Disadvantage: He can't put it away when things go bad.
Wyatt Richeson handicap: 55
Game Experience: 8
Wyatt has played a few times recently but is not a consistent, long-term competitor...
that may hurt him.
Intangibles: 10
Don't let his age or experience level fool you... Wyatt caught on to this game very
quickly from the very first day he played it. He is also a member of the evil Richeson Flight, who are not to be trusted and
can swipe a win on any given day (i.e., his brother and nephew).
Championship Mettle: 11
He finished mid-pack in his first two outings and this will be his third title run...
just enough to be dangerous.
Dues Paid: 8
Wyatt is The Kid Who Won't Go Away. Just when you think he's not playing anymore he
shows up again. If he keeps it up long enough he's going to do something that we won't forget.
Props: 18
Wyatt lives in denial. If his plane has 5 engine hits and 11 in each wing, he still
thinks it will fly forever. Not a physical trait, but an unwavering one nonetheless.
Barton Stano handicap: 52
Game Experience: 13
If this column was called "gamING" experience Bart would top the charts. He plays lotsa stuff
and knows his way around many a gaming board. His overall experience still rates him pretty strongly here despite his lack
of DP gaming lately.
Intangibles: 5
Bart will be the first one to tell you that he has no karma at tourney time and he's
never struck gold in November. Still, we have to throw him a bone here because he did manage second place finishes in
The Big One in 1999 and 2000. That ain't easy.
Championship Mettle: 1
You have to know how to close the deal when the pressure is on... maybe Bart has the knack, but
if so, its not shown up in the tournament yet. Besides, he may be competing for the Armistice championship instead of the
local title (we haven't checked yet)... will that affect his determination?
Dues Paid: 14
Hey, this isn't Bart's first rodeo. He's competing in his fifth fall classic this year and we
think Lady Luck may owe him one. He's been bridesmaid often enough that no one should be suprised if the planets align. Besides,
deep down we all know what he's capable of.
Props: 19
C'mon... Clock of Death? Hello? How can Bart not hit a home run here? He takes a one point penalty
because we've not seen it in a while, but the Clock of Death is cheap, cheesy, totally original, completely annoying
and you can't ignore it even if you want to because your movement time is on it! Line up and take lessons, people...
Bart just might have the perfect Prop.
Alice Skinner handicap: 52
Game Experience: 5
Alice has played since 1990, but with pressing Mom duties she's not been able to play regularly
since about 1998. She's been at the table a couple of times this year, but will rustiness still render her game experience
of little use?
Intangibles: 17
She scores well here in part because she's frequently overlooked as a threat. Alice is quiet
at the game table but persistent. She knows the game is won at the end, not the beginning. She's patient and deliberate in
her game moves.
Championship Mettle: 18
Alice is no stranger to victory. She won RBF VII and two runner-up finishes on Armistice Day.
A win may not be likely, but it wouldn't be a surprise either.
Dues Paid: 11
This one is a toss up. She's winless in seven tries and surely the dice gods will smile upon
her sooner or later... but then, they may be mad at her since she's not played Armistice Day since 2001. We'll do a voodoo
chant and let you know.
Props: 1
Aside from a sincere appreciation for Brian's Skull of Death, Alice has no penchant for cheesy
props. It if comes down to a desperate die roll in the last turn, this could really hurt her.
Scott Jones
handicap: 51
Game Experience: 16
Scott has played this game for
a long time and his savvy at the tourney table should not be underestimated.
Intangibles: 5
If anything can go wrong for Scott,
it will… twice.
Championship Mettle:
17
Scott has never had abundant luck
in November, but again, it would be dangerous to overlook the experience level of player with a fifteen year Dawn Patrol background.
When he's on his game, he's very good and often underestimated. He didn't get all those RBF titles by accident, you know.
Dues Paid: 10
He used up all his luck when he
mopped the floor with the Indy Squadron in his successful bid for the 2000 championship. Lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Props: 3
Aside
from the common effort to use peculiar dice for pilot hit rolls, Scott has no cheap, trashy props to rely on when the going
gets rough. This category may have cost him several titles in the past.
Rich Kapustanczek handicap: 49
Game
Experience: 18
Rich
has been at this for a long time and knows the game inside out. The only reason he didn't score a "20" was because he doesn't
know Indy house rules as well as the locals.
Intangibles:
15
His
game awareness is top notch and he brings a lot of experience to his team, whether it be Central or Allied. That not only
boosts his chances, but also provides a lift to everyone on his team... however...
Championship
Mettle: 2
...
since Rich isn't eligible for the local squadron title will this diminish his determination to win at all costs? Or will he
value the Armistice Day title and all the prizes just as highly? Tough call and we may be shortchanging Rich here, but we
think he could be less motivated than an Indy player.
Dues
Paid: 6
Rich
has been around Indy several times and we love to have him, but his roots are up north. Its hard to imagine the planets aligning
for him perfectly... but stranger things have happened.
Props:
8
He brings no cheap, stupid props to the table that we can recall, but he gets four points for a great sense of humor
and four more for being a dark horse this year. Its impossible to predict how badly he may or may not want an Armistice title,
but you simply can't rule out a player of his experience. He won't be at the top of any odds-makers list... but I wouldn't
bet against him.
Wayne Richeson
handicap: 49
Game Experience: 12
Wayne is entering his fourth Armistice
Day Tourney and gets top notch queues from his dad... a solid base for a young player.
Intangibles: 8
He would have gotten a very low
score here if it weren't for one thing... Wayne shoots. Above all else, his guns are working at every possible moment.
That can score big points when the chips are down.
Championship Mettle:
20
You couldn't expect much more
at his experience level. He's already collected one Victory Medal and he knows how its done.
Dues Paid: 6
Wayne is not one of those guys
who "has one coming." He got his in 2004 in only his second November outing. If anything, he's in a for a dry spell. Not his
fault, but we just can't score him big here.
Props: 3
Another
weak area for Wayne. Dawn Patrol is no place for a sensible, level-headed gentlemen. Wayne needs a game face. He needs
a cheap prop that everyone hates. Send him home with Ken for a week.
Evan Lacy handicap: 45
Game Experience: 3
Evan has a big strike against him here. He simply doesn't have many games under his
belt.
Intangibles: 20
You know, there's just something about a guy who gets into the biggest game of the
year and is outnumbered four to one and refuses to give up or fly away. That takes guts, and its gotta be worth something.
Championship Mettle: 18
It can't be easy to be the youngest and most inexperienced player at the table and
still hang in there and stare death in the face. He hasn't won anything in this game yet, but he ranks high on the grit and
determination scale.
Dues Paid: 1
Nope. Not yet. Too early. Fortune smiles on those who hang it out day after day, year
after year. This is just Evan's second go-round in The Big One.
Props: 3
He's like his dad... he don't need no stinking props, he just needs two guns. He does
get extra points for volume and persistence.